Sri Lanka (points 2, net run-rate -0.600)
They are currently in second place, thanks to a run rate that is superior to that of West Indies. The best-case scenario for them is that they beat India, and Australia beat West Indies, in which case Australia and Sri Lanka will qualify for the semi-finals on points. Sri Lanka will also be through if they lose to India by less than 20 runs and Australia beat West Indies.
They are currently in second place, thanks to a run rate that is superior to that of West Indies. The best-case scenario for them is that they beat India, and Australia beat West Indies, in which case Australia and Sri Lanka will qualify for the semi-finals on points. Sri Lanka will also be through if they lose to India by less than 20 runs and Australia beat West Indies.
However, even a win against India will not assure them a spot in the last four, if West Indies beat Australia. Currently, Sri Lanka have conceded 24 more runs than they have scored, while for West Indies the corresponding number is 43. If both teams win their final games and West Indies win by a margin that offsets that difference, then they will go through. Thus, if Sri Lanka beat India by a run, and West Indies beat Australia by 21 runs, then the home team will progress to the semis.
West Indies (points 2, net run-rate -1.075)
The win against India has kept them in contention, but the huge defeat against Sri Lanka means their NRR is still languishing at -1.075. They'll qualify without the run rate coming into play if they beat Australia and if Sri Lanka lose to India. However, if they beat Australia and Sri Lanka beat India, then NRR will come into play. West Indies currently have a handicap of 19 runs compared to Sri Lanka (refer to the paragraph above), and they'll have to win by a margin that offsets that handicap. A defeat against Australia will put them out of the tournament, regardless of the result in the other match.
The win against India has kept them in contention, but the huge defeat against Sri Lanka means their NRR is still languishing at -1.075. They'll qualify without the run rate coming into play if they beat Australia and if Sri Lanka lose to India. However, if they beat Australia and Sri Lanka beat India, then NRR will come into play. West Indies currently have a handicap of 19 runs compared to Sri Lanka (refer to the paragraph above), and they'll have to win by a margin that offsets that handicap. A defeat against Australia will put them out of the tournament, regardless of the result in the other match.
India (points 0, net run-rate -1.575)
For India to make the cut, they'll have to beat Sri Lanka by a margin of at least 20 runs, and then hope West Indies lose to Australia. Currently India have conceded 63 more runs than they have scored, compared to Sri Lanka's 24. If they win by 20 runs, their difference will reduce to 43 while Sri Lanka's will increase to 44, which will do the trick for India. If India bat second, and assuming Sri Lanka have scored 160, they'll need to chase it down in a maximum of 17.4 overs to lift their NRR above Sri Lanka's.
For India to make the cut, they'll have to beat Sri Lanka by a margin of at least 20 runs, and then hope West Indies lose to Australia. Currently India have conceded 63 more runs than they have scored, compared to Sri Lanka's 24. If they win by 20 runs, their difference will reduce to 43 while Sri Lanka's will increase to 44, which will do the trick for India. If India bat second, and assuming Sri Lanka have scored 160, they'll need to chase it down in a maximum of 17.4 overs to lift their NRR above Sri Lanka's.
Australia (points 4, net run-rate +3.250)
Not only have they won two games, they've won them so convincingly that their net run rate is an incredible +3.25; the difference between their runs scored and conceded is 130. They're through unless what's listed below, or something even more incredible, happens: West Indies beat Australia by 87 runs, and Sri Lanka beat India by a 68-run margin. Then both West Indies and Sri Lanka will have a higher NRR than Australia. It's a possibility, but only in theory.
Not only have they won two games, they've won them so convincingly that their net run rate is an incredible +3.25; the difference between their runs scored and conceded is 130. They're through unless what's listed below, or something even more incredible, happens: West Indies beat Australia by 87 runs, and Sri Lanka beat India by a 68-run margin. Then both West Indies and Sri Lanka will have a higher NRR than Australia. It's a possibility, but only in theory.
